The Dark Horse Contender for the 2024 Tour de France: Carlos Rodriguez

And one wild card pick: the breakout sensation Matteo Jorgenson

It’ll be the clash of the titans at the Tour de France this year, with major contenders Tadej Pogacar, Primoz Roglic, Remco Evenpoel, and defending champion Jonas Vingegaard. But these conditions may be perfect for the ascension of dark horse — and this year’s dark horse pick is Carlos Rodriguez of the INEOS Grenadiers.

Here’s the situation: Though he would typically be the favorite, Vingegaard is still recovering his form after the devastating crash in the Tour of Basque Country earlier this year. Roglic and Evenpoel were also caught up in the crash, but Roglic recovered enough to win the recent Criterium du Dauphine — if only by the skin of his teeth, a mere eight seconds over the impressive Matteo Jorgenson (who we’re not finished talking about). Evenpoel has also recovered, but his form remains inconsistent, as he claimed the yellow jersey on Stage 4 (the Individual Time Trial) but finished a disappointing seventh in the Dauphine overall, two minutes and twenty-five seconds down from Roglic. Evenpoel also finished second to Matteo Jorgenson in Paris-Nice.

All this is important to the dark horse conversation because each of these formidable contenders have an asterisk by their names when it comes to winning the Tour:

• Vingegaard is an unknown quantity due to his injuries, and though he’ll show up at the Tour, his team is keeping their expectations low. Twelve days in the hospital after his crash means his recovery process has been considerable; it’s hard to recover peak form in mere months prior to the Tour.
• Roglic, whose form and new Red Bull Bora Hansgrohe team have made significant improvements since earlier this year, is still an underdog in the Tour fight, having lost to Pogacar before and having been succeeded as team leader on the former Jumbo Visma team (now Visma Lease-a-Bike) by Vingegaard. With a new team, he still has a chance; but it will take a keen strategy and a herculean effort.
• Evenpoel, who sustained a broken collarbone in the Basque Country crash, is an extremely powerful rider, but he’s reliably unreliable when it comes to longer races, and this is his first Tour de France.
• Pogacar is undoubtedly the healthiest and seems to be in top form, but he is attempting the Tour double — racing the Giro d’Italia and the Tour de France virtually back to back. He won the Giro in flying colors, practically stomping on his rivals with a lead of nearly 10 minutes overall, but the Giro is not Le Tour. And though Pogacar has won the Tour twice before, he is human — and it’s tough on the human body to do two Grand Tours with just weeks in between for recovery.

At the end of the day, out of these four, it’s likely Pogacar who will take the crown, given the form he’s in; but questions still remain. (Plus, circumstances always conspire against riders in the Tour: no one is immune from the threat of disease, misfortune, and crashes.) Even without variables, there’s room for a dark horse to sneak up the standings while the favorites try to wear each other out. This is setting up to be a very intense Tour; battles will be fought at every opportunity.

So the conditions are ripe for this year’s dark horse, Carlos Rodriguez, to stay out of the drama and follow his major competitors up the road — and stay consistent enough to escape their notice until it’s too late. Rodriguez has had a good year so far. Outside of an atypical low-placed finish in Paris-Nice, he finished fourth in the Dauphine (on top of winning the last stage), second in the Tour of the Basque Country, and first overall in the Tour de Romandie.

INEOS operates best when they have a strong team leader, and they should have the firepower to defend a yellow jersey. What matters is for Rodriguez to stay with the leaders, conserve his strength, and move in for the kill during week three. The circumstances may vary, but in this year’s Tour, we could see the perfect setup for a come-from-behind finish — similar to the way that Pogacar won his first Tour in 2020.

The Wild Card Pick: Matteo Jorgenson

All that being said, here’s a wild card selection for the daring: The aforementioned Matteo Jorgenson of Visma Lease-a-Bike is making waves this year after winning Paris-Nice, winning Dwars door Vlaanderen, and coming in second in the Dauphine by a mere eight seconds. Should Vingegaard falter, the likely alternate player is Sepp Kuss, the man of the mountains who surprisingly took the top step of the podium in last year’s Vuelta a Espana. However, Kuss has not been looking like himself this year (or perhaps not like a GC contender), with no notable finishes in any major races. If Jorgenson is succeeding — and Vingegaard and Kuss are not — he could be given free reign to try for the GC in this year’s Tour.

What do you think of this year’s dark horse pick — and any other potential wild cards?